FORECASTS OF Luke Pardi - July 11, 2008
between now and the end of an unprecedented financial crisis will evaporate the last glimmers of hope on the sustainability of the current economic regime. I can not have doubts on this point. The three components of the systemic crisis: economic, financial, energy and ecological, ensure that the fall will be for sure.
have long been convinced that the point of initial fall will be to finance, while the environmental issues will still be swept under the rug thanks to the resilience of the ecosphere. The crisis will probably fall in the price of fossil fuels, demand for murder, but this is not a positive sign for the economic system but just the consequence of the industrial crisis (and perhaps of capitalism as such). In a global situation greatly affected the economic and social, with a massive rise in mortality among the poor, the struggle for the hoarding of raw materials and food resources and water, has begun the return of humanity.
Today I would wager that they never touch the 8.5 billion people. Unfortunately, the rules will not be what we dreamed of. I do not know how we can equip ourselves to overcome this situation, but I find it pretty useless political activity as it is now regardless of the sympathy for Marco Pannella on hunger strike and Matt ripping something about China.
Frankly, while wearily hear this news, my mind wanders off to think about what I can (or can) do to address a crisis seriously taking into account that we have few to have this awareness. It would be better to put our skills to the post-crisis activities rather than pressure within a political system that can not be wiped out. In short, better think of ourselves as leaders of the "after" rather than exhausting myself running after the "before" because you become aware of things that he does not want to be aware of the constitution.
Nobody ever understand that there are economic policy instruments that can keep up a system of transport of goods as the current one (they want to protest the drivers) and a system of livestock breeding, production, storage and distribution food, and even health systems, education and welfare as the current ones.
I do not expect a catastrophic collapse and unique, but a series of flops with progressive cuts of wealth. I imagine a financial collapse with savings going up in smoke (if you have them) factories close, consumers are falling down, other factories that are closing, collapsing state revenues, salaries that can not be paid, a further drop in consumption. A situation like Cuba after the collapse of the wall and the end of the Soviet remittances. But here is the first effect of the peak is real and global.
We should start thinking about the stabilization in the decline phase, the reconstruction of energy networks the local economy. Perhaps in addition to solar panels and KG should promote local currencies, the production of food. But how do these things? I do not know, but we should give an impression less ideological and more effective. Who cares, after all, a conference? A conference is to leave the fuckin time. Every so often I seem to be schizophrenic, before I pissed off because we were not consulted, then listen to the conference and I say thank goodness we were not consulted. Bonino said that the? Emma Look, but do you care to do a conference on something that will never realize anyone?
Sure you will waste a little 'how are wasting resources in the madness of the last mile between BAU viaducts, hypermarkets, new highways, bridges, tunnels, skyscrapers, Winter Olympics, summer, spring, stadium seats, golf courses, new homes, new areas of research, university campuses in remote areas, airports, ports, airports, water treatment plants, shopping malls, centers logistics (what the fuck is a logistics hub?), scrap everything (especially the brains of people), relay newly developed for mobile phones, ultra-flat screens, boobs ultrasode for pupae SUV ..... the grand finale dell'abbuffata consumer.
moralism is not mine. My ideal life is that of billionaire drugged, surrounded by hoes truly vicious, on a sailboat than twenty feet, with the sailors helping me with truly nasty hoes (because in fact I am 51 years old and they are also a debauched voyeur), and then everything else, television with all the football games in the world, steak, caviar, wild sea bass, cherries in December, papaya and raspberries, tigers make disciples, the best wine ... . I'm not a moralist as Ferretti short, that would put us all in a reeducation camp ghandiana. The fact is that I can not even be an optimistic program and make money even if I could not hope for the perpetuation of a world in which our species crushes and destroys everything ignoring the laws of physics.
This is the difference between us and ... them, we know scientifically the unsustainability of the contemporary socio-economic metabolism. We are certainly not the first to have said. We are among the few that focus on population issues. Then you will have to equip to keep up this issue even after the crisis. Perhaps it is important that the difficulties people are given the opportunity to procreate without sin. What is true of Africa in hours will be worth more so here in a few years. A final question to all to which I answer tomorrow: What level of awareness exists in the political class on the crisis coming? And what in the Italian and world? And in countries with different levels of development?
I wonder for example if the Chinese leaders do not know that their growth is unsustainable and that you will find the riots in the house when the great masses will understand that it can not reach the standards promised.
PS What I said is what I think. I'm willing to stake everything on what I think: If in six months nothing happened and the system went ahead peacefully in BAU mode will be put to the mockery of history for years to come.
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